Digital TV Crash Course: 10 years later

If you've ever looked at the (American) local public television schedule, you've probably seen something listed late at night called "Digital TV: A Cringley Crash Course". My local PBS station plays it pretty much everyday between the hours of 2am and 5am, so the other day I decided to record it and watch it during a more reasonable hour.

Filmed in 1998, it's a half-hour introduction to HDTV and though many aspects of it are deliciously quaint (like the price and size of HDTVs mentioned), I was pleasantly surprised at how much this future-forward introductory show got right. Here are the highlights and lowlights of the show, with ten years of hindsight:

Predictions it got right

• A nice history of aspect ratios is explained and TVs of the future would all be 16:9.
• I was surprised that this show actually describes resolution up to 1080p as the high end. Given the limitations of 1998 technology, I figured they would discuss 480p and maybe 720p at most.
• High resolution video will be delivered on fiber optic lines (as a new FiOS TV customer, I would say this is spot-on).
• The show predicted most people would have HDTV sometime in the 2000s and talked about the 2006 digital TV switch (which was pushed to February 2009) which looks like it will finally happen.

Predictions it got wrong

• All during the 1990s, everyone seemed to predict interactive TV was just around the corner. This section of the Cringley Crash Course site explains what was predicted on this show: shows would include all sorts of helpful metadata about what you were viewing. They even showed a demo during a cooking segment (with Julia Child!) where the full recipe was shown in an optional window, and any ingredient could be drilled down for more info. This has never happened and I don't know if it ever will (I'd rather use my laptop to look at google/wikipedia instead of my TV).

Overall, the show still holds up pretty well, giving an introduction to what HDTV means and for the most part accurately predicts what the TV world will be like in the 2000s.

March 4, 2008 in Op-Ed | Permalink | Comments (2)

Lessons from the TiVo launch: learning from mistakes

My TiVo is finally on a truck headed my way, but the buying process was filled with a lot of conflicting information and mismanaged expectations. Instead of making this a big anti-TiVo rant fest, I want to highlight lessons that any company could learn from. Some of these might sound nit-picky, but it's important to always give the customer a clear and consistent message and it would certainly cut down on support costs if buyers weren't in the dark. Support costs money and a lot of it could be avoided by making small changes in email and web server programming.

1. Mistake: Tivo.com stated the Series 3 would ship in 1-2 days on day of launch.
   
   Lesson: Your store has to be inventory-sensitive. Not a lot of e-commerce sites excel at this, but it's worth tying your store backend to your inventory, or at the least, doing a little bit of math on the server side. I bet TiVo had 5,000 units ready to ship within two days, but got 5-10x that number of orders and swamped the system. A savvy developer could write some logic that displayed 1-2 days for the first 5k orders, then shift that to 3-4 days for the next 10k orders. After that, put 5-7 days for the rest on the first day.
   
   Apple does a great job with this (after a history of bad product launches). If you check out a product on the Apple Store on the day of launch, the shipment time will change as the day goes on, depending on order volume. The key is keeping your customer expectations in line with reality. For the past two years, Apple has been great for me, always delivering a day or two before they say, which keeps me happy.
   
   It sucked to spend $1100 and hear nothing about shipping for over 48 hours, but I ordered late morning Pacific time, or about 6 hours after the first orders trickled in. I wouldn't have minded if it said it'd take a week by that time.
2. Mistake: TiVo sent a "whoops" email 2 days later, promising next-day shipment with email that never happened
   
   Lesson: Admitting a mistake early is great, but not following up on the promise killed any help it offered. When you sell way more than you expected, it's great to let people know there will be a slight delay and that they'll get free shipping as a result (everyone loves a bonus for a waiting customer!). The problem here is when you make a promise that everything will ship by the next day and the customer should see an email about this, it has to be absolutely true. You've already delayed the customer once -- when you give them more information, make sure it is 100% reliable because you don't want to delay them again.
   
   At this point, I setup a CableCard install, knowing I'd get the box on Saturday or Monday. I had to delay it on Monday for an additional week (next available slot), since I didn't know when it would ship.
3. Mistake: Order Confirmation emails going out with old addresses
   
   Lesson: Always reference the original order info, not what you have on file for the customer. I never got the promised shipment email on Friday, but on Sunday afternoon I got an order confirmation email that listed the billing and shipping info for a place I lived in three years ago, back when I used to be a TiVo customer. I moved twice since then, had DirecTV then Comcast, but I used the same email when ordering the TiVo that I used to have a TiVo account with. I didn't want my $1100 package going to an old apartment so I called customer service on a Sunday night (couldn't be cheap for TiVo to maintain staff at that hour) only to be told it was going to the address I put down on my order, where I currently live.
   
   This happened to others as well, and the conflicting information just created more customer support issues.
   
   Another nit-pick, but the confirmation email said my order was placed on 9/14, not 9/12 when I actually ordered it on the website (I suspect the date is when TiVo put it in the confirmed system -- don't expose that to the customer).
   
4. Mistake: Shipment email has conflicting info
   
   Lesson: Always give the customer consistent information. I got my final shipment email this morning saying I ordered UPS Ground shipping (instead of next day air) and it shows my total order doesn't include the 3-year pre-paid service. I understand TiVo doesn't actually ship 3-year service in a box, but it says "ITEMS ORDERED" and it is left off. Call it "ITEMS SHIPPING" instead because that reflects what you're really describing. Also, if every shipment needs to be UPS Ground in the system to process it as free, tack on a note saying that Next Day orders will arrive quicker.

I'm happy that TiVo's Series 3 sales exceeded expectations and this happens with any highly-anticipated launch (see also: xbox360, Playstation 2, iPods), but I think there are a few small changes that could have gone a long way towards keeping everyone happy and up to date. If the website said "shipping in 5-7 days" and the confirmation emails had information that reflected my order, I'd be a happy camper waiting for my TiVo to arrive sometime today, instead of reading posts on other blogs saying TiVo lied, don't buy from them, and I would have had an easier time lining up a cablecard install appointment.

September 19, 2006 in Op-Ed | Permalink | Comments (6)

Looks like the Series3 TiVo will be $799

Engadget has the scoop on the price of the upcoming Series 3 TiVo. Next month's Popular Mechanics has a guide page listing it as $800.

I'm really surprised TiVo isn't doing a better job dropping details on their upcoming release. They announced a mailing list a few weeks ago but haven't sent messages to it. They've been silent since the rumored launch date and price had spread. And now we see validation in a major national magazine.

In the end, we highly anxious, anticipating customers that want to buy one ASAP are finding out what we wanted to know with or without TiVo, only it's through all these leaks. I'd love to see TiVo take control of their PR and just come out and tell everyone what it'll cost and when we can get them in a store.

Not every company can be top secret and surprise the world like Apple does consistently. TiVo, instead take your cues from Sony, Nintendo, and Microsoft -- be open and upfront with your customers and give them price and release dates well in advance (especially for major $800 purchases that might take people a couple months to save up for). Sure, once in a while deadlines slip, but it sure beats two years of speculation and a couple months worth of leaks that reveal everything everyone wanted to know anyway.

September 5, 2006 in Op-Ed | Permalink | Comments (12)

Quit saying "tivo" when it isn't a TiVo

I know I'm being a bit of a stickler here, but last week on Pimp My Ride, they opened the show by saying they'd stick hi-def TiVo into a guy's van. I watched closely knowing that's no easy task and unsurprisingly, even though you hear the word "TiVo" in the episode about half a dozen times, it most definitely wasn't TiVo.

Here's a clip of the episode, showing the installation segment that includes this "tivo" (embedded flash video):

If you look closely, you can see DirecTV (screenshot right) in the menus as they install this mobile satellite system (another quibble: it doesn't do HD). The box he keeps referring to as a TiVo is actually LG's LRM-519 (screenshot lower right) which looks like a standard def DVR with a DVD burner in it, running Microsoft software (talking to a standard DirecTV receiver since it can't decode DirecTV signals on its own). There is no actual TiVo software or hardware of any kind involved in this setup.

My point in explaining all this is that this Pimp My Ride segment shows the popularization of "TiVo" to the point at which any DVR is called a "TiVo" by salesmen, customer service reps, and now TV personalities. I know companies don't like it when they become so popular and ubiquitous that their name becomes generic (see: xerox, kleenex) but I'm especially worried about TiVo becoming generic because the experience of using a TiVo versus anything else is much different.

I get tons of email from dissatisfied cable and satellite customers that were offered a "TiVo" and ended up with a buggy, hard to use standard company-provided DVR. I've even heard a story of a family friend signing up to DirecTV, insisting on a combo TiVo/Satellite box (they'd used one before and liked it) and being assured they would receive a TiVo unit. When an installer showed up with the R15 device and argued that it was "the same as TiVo" the customer halted the install, complained to DirecTV, and is considering further action against DirecTV.

I know on the one hand it's a testament to how great a product/service is when people use it as a generic term but in the case of TiVo it seems to be leading to a lot of customer confusion. I could see the day when TiVo goes after other companies that promise you a tivo over the phone or in a store and then deliver a generic DVR.

July 12, 2006 in Op-Ed | Permalink | Comments (34)

NYT dissin' the CableCard

The New York Times recently ran a tech story "A CableCard That Hasn't Been Able to Kill the Set-Top Box" talking about how the CableCARD standard was included in a lot of TVs but hasn't taken off, so many TV manufacturers are scaling back their support of CableCard.

What is annoying about this article is that it hinges entirely on quotes from companies producing hardware, cable company spokespeople, and industry analysts, including this gem:

"The CableCard is essentially dead," said Mr. Doherty of Envisioneering. "It will go down in history like the Edsel."

I really wish the writer mentioned the other side of the story. Cable companies dragged their feet supporting CableCard and only did the minimum to meet FCC regulations. The TV manufacturers released CableCard-ready hardware years ago, before most companies offering programming had their act together. From what I've heard from other Comcast customers like me, it's apparently difficult to get a CableCard and they try to talk you out of it (since they end up losing the $5-10 per month you'd be paying for a box). Most importantly, the big CableCard applications like the Series 3 TiVo and Microsoft Vista Media Center systems will be some of the first DVRs that can record in HD thanks to the CableCard.

CableCard uptake has been low for several reasons. There aren't too many compelling reasons to opt for one today (aside from simply having a cleaner/cheaper cable TV setup). There are specifications for hardware and software that take quite a bit of time to pass muster. Now that the standard has been in place for a few years, we'll finally see some good applications later this year when feature-rich DVR apps come out of TiVo and Microsoft, and people will be lining up to get them.

This story in the NYT reads like a premature eulogy, told from industry insiders with a vested interest in seeing the standard fail miserably. In a few years when there are millions of Series 3 and Vista Media Center boxes floating around, the story of CableCard will surely be rewritten as one of success, and something that empowers customers who weren't getting the features or flexibility in the cable company DVRs of the past.

July 5, 2006 in Op-Ed | Permalink | Comments (19)

TiVo doesn't really get podcasting

I've been meaning to link to my friend Jason's rant that TiVo doesn't really get podcasting for a couple weeks now. Everything he says is spot-on.

I played with the dual tuner TiVo a couple months ago and it was the first time I got to play with the podcast tools. Like Jason, I was very disappointed to see the TiVo client seemed to rely on the network for everything. I couldn't get most podcasts to play due to slow downloads and I couldn't believe the pause/fwd controls were disabled.

After using it, I would guess that adding podcasting to the TiVo OS was something tacked on, maybe pushed through by marketing, and the engineers that worked on it didn't take the time or care to do it right. It's really surprising, since with the large hard drives in TiVos these days, caching and saving a few megabytes of audio and allowing basic operations on those files should be trivial, not to mention the dozens of open source podcast libraries that demonstrate how to do it right.

Hopefully future versions of the TiVo OS will remedy this -- it definitely feels like a disconnect when TiVo handles large video files so well, but is nearly useless and buggy when it comes to simple, smaller audio files.

June 23, 2006 in Op-Ed | Permalink | Comments (18)

The Sorry State of Pay TV

Some friends bought a new house and recently asked me what I would pick given their three TV programming options (they are also interested in trying out HDTV for the first time): Comcast cable, Dish satellite, or DirecTV satellite. Here's what I answered with:

Comcast - Lots of channels on the system with a dozen or two HD channels including local stations. Downside is it can run expensive ($60+ with a basic package that includes HD, a HD DVR, and a movie channel) and the HD DVR is pitiful to use. Hopefully more HD channels are coming soon, but I've heard nothing.

DirecTV - Lots of standard-def digital channels that are very clear, sharper than my current digital cable line. They dropped TiVo for the basic DVR, and you'll have to use a new one that many people complain about. For HD, you can get a dozen or so channels on a ~$500 HD DirecTiVo combo box, but the kicker is they are changing formats in the next two years to offer hundreds of HD channels, but the HD TiVo box will no longer work. Also at the moment, most people can't legally get HD local channels through DirecTV and must use an antenna. A decent package for one TV might run about $50 or so.

Dish Network - Having never been a customer, I couldn't offer first-hand advice, but from what I've seen it is close to DirecTV in terms of so-so DVR options and some HD channels. I've never heard any rave reviews of the DVR options and the Dish Network did just lose a major lawsuit with TiVo, which could have implications down the line. Same ballpark pricing as DirecTV.

In the end I realized there isn't a particularly stand out option, as they all have significant faults and these were their only options. Also, I realized it's kind of a shame you can't get a good TV package with a good DVR even at a fairly high monthly cost. Eventually they picked Dish because they had Comcast for several years and weren't too hip on it and DirecTV offered limited HD along with HD DVR hardware that is in limbo.

Personally I'm still holding out for a Series 3 TiVo. Comcast's offerings coupled with a really good DVR would make for a great service. I just hope they start carrying more HD channels and have a plan for the future of several hundred HD channels (at which point I'll probably have to jump to fiber with Verizon and Verizon IPTV).

May 4, 2006 in Op-Ed | Permalink | Comments (17)

Comcast/Motorola DVR pet peeve regarding spoilers

I've playing with a new TiVo this week and since I'm still interacting with my Comcast/Motorola box at home, it's easy to make comparisons and I'm again reminded of how well TiVo gets the user experience and how cable company DVRs can sometimes falter. One example this week really drove the point home for me.

I've been using DVRs for six years now, so I frequently watch prime time shows on the same night they air, but about 20-40 minutes after they start so I can fast forward commercials and still get to bed at a decent hour.

When you fire up your TV and your TiVo, hitting the TiVo button clears the screen and sound and gives you a menu. You can select the show being recorded in-progress and watch it from there. With the Comcast/Motorola box, when you turn it on live TV is playing and hitting the 'My DVR' button will shrink live TV down to 1/4 its size with audio still playing, and you can use the menu to select a show to watch.

You can probably guess what happened. I watch American Idol and frequently wait a while so I can fast forward the silly breaks and bad songs and when I was sitting down to watch this week's result show, it was about 25 minutes after the hour. As I was navigating the slow My DVR menu, I hear Ace being sent home, spoiling the show.

I like the live TV playing in a small window when using the guide (TiVo does this as well), but when using the DVR menus of finding shows to record or playback, it can get in the way, as I found out. When I had TiVo, I would purposely hit the TiVo button before turning the TV on, to make sure I never got any spoilers, but with the Comcast box, there's no way to guarantee it (aside from switching tuners immediately if you spot your show on).

April 21, 2006 in Op-Ed | Permalink | Comments (24)

Comcast needs to get a handle on spoilers

Comcast is pushing PVRs so hard these days you'd think they were giving birth. It's kind of funny that they are using their website to remind people of one of the drawbacks of PVR ownership: they published Six Feet Under spoilers in their entertainment headlines (contains spoilers as of Aug 1, 2005. Obviously).

Imagine it. A customer has seen enough ads for the Comcast DVR that they decide to set it up to record Six Feet Under so they can watch it the following night. Meanwhile, they check out Comcast's site and have a major plot point ruined. Do you think they're going to be all that interested in time-shifting after that?

August 1, 2005 in Op-Ed | Permalink | Comments (9) | TrackBack

The Long Tail of TV and coming IP TV Revolution

I'm a big fan of WIRED editor Chris Anderson's Long Tail thesis and his blog about the subject. The gist of it is that while a handful of popular shows/songs/movies make up the bulk of revenue for entertainment companies, often 50% or more of their total revenue can come from many people finding the less popular stuff, or the long tail. Thanks to various technologies enabled by the internet, like Amazon, Netflix, iTunes Music Store, it's now easier than ever to find that one old movie, song, or show you really loved and buy it (Amazon, NetFlix and iTMS all contain inventories no physical store could ever match).

In a recent posting on his long tail blog, Anderson talked about how television is an industry headed towards a disaster/wake-up-call, and how TV serves the long tail the least of all entertainment industries. In a related interview, Thomas Hawk talked with Jeremy Allaire about his new venture Brightcove, which is also mentioned at the end of Anderson's piece.

Both pieces are illuminating. The TV industry as a whole produces over 31 million hours of programming each year, but most people only have access to 3-4% of the total, and finding what you like even among that smaller number is difficult. There's also the weird way most TV shows are shown once and then never seen again. Ad rates and audiences are dropping, threatening the entire business model that TV is built on, so it's only a matter of time before big change comes to the TV space.

If you could digitize and make available all 31 million hours of video produced each year, and had a sophisticated search mechanism, people could find all the niche programming they want and love. Some shows (like say, I don't know... "Hawaiian Snowmobile Video Magazine") might only have 1000 fans in the entire world, but if you could capture that audience and give them the shows they want to see, you might be able to make quite a bit of money selling the show at a premium while also selling advertising to a very specific audience. Some folks call this "narrowcasting" and those in the ad world are always looking for ways to reach their intended customers.

It's an exciting time for people that watch TV and those that are on the cusp of new trends in delivering television to viewers, but it's likely a bad time to be a network TV executive, straining to keep old business models alive. I can't wait to see where the world of TV is in five years. I suspect I'll be picking shows I want to see off a website, buying copies for a small charge, and downloading them for to my home theater by then.

April 12, 2005 in Op-Ed | Permalink | Comments (5) | TrackBack

DirecTV's HD problem

A few months ago, I finally splurged and got a low-end plasma TV capable of displaying HDTV signals (it's only 480p or ED, but still). I longed for a HD DirecTiVo to replace my current (hacked) DirecTiVo box. Last month I called DirecTV to inquire what my options were, and that's when trouble started.

Basically, if I paid $999 for a HD DirecTiVo box plus ten bucks a month extra, I could get their HDTV pack including Discovery and ESPN in HD format, their HDNet offering of various programming, and HBO in HD, since I already get HBO. Local stations in HD format like Fox, ABC, CBS, and NBC were subject to pending FCC approval even though DirecTV has a pretty page set up to sell it.

I called today to see how that FCC ruling went and unfortunately, DirecTV lost. If you get local channels in standard definition format, you cannot get HD. DirecTV can only offer Over the Air (OTA) antennas, which doesn't help me being out in the hilly regions away from Portalnd, OR. They did say if I lived in LA or NYC, I could get local channels in HD from DirecTV, but otherwise the rest of the country was screwed. I don't think five channels of varying content are worth a thousand dollar box (with constant HDMI problems) plus ten bucks a month.

But it doesn't end there -- DirecTV sent up a couple new satellites last year to increase their bandwidth for more HD channels. They're talking about adding dozens-to-hundreds of channels in HD format in the next year, but (drumroll please...) it'll be in a new encryption/encoding (MPEG-4) format which won't work with $999 HD DirecTiVos.

The Washington Post recently mentioned this in an advice column, warning folks to avoid the HD DirecTiVo boxes. Word on the street is that DirecTV will offer their competing NDS DVR for recording HD signals instead of TiVo, with no concrete plans for converting current owners from one to the other. DirecTV says that plans are to have the new channels and DVRs out by the end of the year, so the bottom line is that if you're a HDTV owner with DirecTV in 2005 that wants to record HDTV, you're S.O.L.

It's a bummer really, since I've gotten DirecTV in 2002, I never thought I'd go back to cable, but Comcast now offers their HD DVR in my area for less than the price of my DirecTV package, and I wouldn't have to buy a $999 doorstop to get it. I'd really like to enjoy network shows in HD, and it looks like my only option for the next year.

DirecTV really dropped the ball on this one.

UPDATE: Thomas Hawk says there's a way to route around DirecTV's damage by getting the right rep on the phone and asking for the NY/LA service for a few bucks extra. Sounds like exactly what I wanted, though the reps I've spoken with say they're not allowed to sell that to me. Kind of expensive to get the HD locals for another $10/month on top of the $10/month regular HD package, but at least it's possible.

April 5, 2005 in DirecTV, Op-Ed | Permalink | Comments (70) | TrackBack

Comcast Contrarians

Not everyone is singing the praises of the TiVo/Comcast deal announced last week.  Ed Bott is concerned that Tom Rogers championed the deal, and shows a host of bad deals Rogers has been involved in previously.

On the other hand, Alex Rowland sees a TiVo divided.  With Comcast throwing it's weight around TiVo will need to focus on carriers and advertisers ahead of consumers.  I'm not sure I buy his argument that consumers will come last; TiVo didn't stop innovating just because DirecTV didn't want the Home Media Option.  Also, letting the innovation slide will hurt TiVo's status as a premium brand.

Problems with business priorities have been a problem in the past.  Ex-president Marty Yudkovitz was seen as a supporter of media ties, while ex-CEO and current-Chairman Michael Ramsay is a champion of the technology.  The conflict between those goals has produced quite a bit of outcry from the community (and this site).  So is the Comcast deal good news for TiVo?  I'm still in the supporter camp, but there's certainly room for skepticism.

[Update: PVRblog pal Thomas Hawk sends along an interview with Comcast CEO Brian Roberts on the TiVo deal.  Obviously Mr Roberts is in the supporters camp, but questions starting with "this is a juggernaut that will change the fabric of television" leave me expecting Jeff Gannon to tell Lost Remote's Richard Warner to calm down a little.]

March 21, 2005 in Op-Ed, TiVo | Permalink | Comments (8) | TrackBack

Is Microsoft violating TiVo's patent?

I was reading through Ed Bott's comparison of TiVo, Windows Media Center and a cable PVR (via Thomas Hawk) when one of the feature descriptions caught my eye:

Built-in reaction time. When you're fast-forwarding through a show (or, more often, through commercial blocks), you're watching the video flickering by. And then you see the part you want to watch — and hit Play. Now, on a less intelligent machine, you'd be too late. You'd have missed the first 20 seconds of what you wanted, because the fast-forwarding had already blown past it.
But not on a TiVo. It compensates for your reaction time. When you hit Play, it doesn't begin playing from that point; it begins playing a few seconds before that, with uncanny "it knew what I wanted" accuracy.
MCE has this option as well. It's called Reaction Time Compensation, and it’s customizable using the TweakMCE PowerToy. SARA doesn’t do this, and the absence of this feature makes the experience of watching a recorded program annoying.

Let me start by saying that I am a huge fan of this feature.  I think that it should be on every PVR and DVD player.  However, TiVo recently announced that they had recently received several patents including one that appears to describe this feature.  From TiVo's press release:

The USPTO recently issued patent number 6,850,691 entitled Automatic Playback Overshoot Correction System to TiVo. Among other things, the patent describes a system that compensates for a user's reaction time when the user stops fast-forwarding or rewinding through program material.

I'm not a lawyer, and I'm really not a software patent lawyer, but it sounds like MCE's Reaction Time Compensation is doing what's covered in this patent.  You can read the full text of patent 6,850,691 online.

March 3, 2005 in Op-Ed, TiVo, Windows Media Center XP | Permalink | Comments (28) | TrackBack

Why would Apple even want TiVo?

Still no news on the rumors that Apple is buying TiVo, since Apple isn't suing anyone this time there's no way to be sure one way or the other. However, people putting their TiVo stickers on the backs of their iBooks might want to hold off a little while. It's unlikely that either company will come out and deny the rumors even if they're untrue, so we'll just have to wait and see if they get confirmed.

While we're waiting, let's look at what the companies could offer each other. First off, TiVo is built on top of Linux, Mac OS X is built on top of a NetBSD FreeBSD port called Darwin. I'm no kernel hacker, but it seems like it would be possible to port TiVo's Linux changes to Darwin. It would be easier for Apple and TiVo than most companies because they both are built on PowerPC architectures - at least easier than if there were rumors of Microsoft buying TiVo.

Meanwhile, Apple's iTunes Music Store continues to sell iPods (well, they don't sell them on the iTMS, but you know what I mean). There is speculation that Apple will be building a QuickTime Movie Store; if Apple could make money selling the hardware they could use the iTunes Music Store business for it as well. It would also help cement the position of the Quicktime Streaming Server, which would likely sell a number of Xserves.

A TiVo acquisition would also provide a place for iTunes in the living room. Apple's AirPort Express proves Apples interest in moving out of the office and into the living rooom. There's even a way to control an AirPort Express from the TiVo using HME.

The TiVo could also tie into Apple's iLife suite. TiVo already plays well with iPhoto and iTunes, why not add iMovie and iDVD integration as well? My sister could make an iMovie of my nephew and send it to my TiVo between my 10 hours of Law & Order a day, then I could burn it using iDVD. Heck, why not let me show my Keynote slideshow using my TiVo?

Then there's the perennial talk of a video iPod. This fits in perfectly with TiVoToGo, you would simply dock your iPod on your TiVo and download your shows. Obviously there are some technical challenges there for the TiVo and iPod, but TiVo provides a great platform to build on.

So what does TiVo gain from this? For one thing, Apple is sitting pretty well these days. It could afford TiVo some elbow room to innovate; right now Ramsay is frustrated with investors not seeing the bigger picture. As an Apple division they could focus more on user experience and product development.

Apple's name would also give Om Malik the premium branding he says will save TiVo. Apple has a firm grasp on how to survive with a premium product and a small marketshare. TiVo's competition with the cable providers looks a lot like Apple's competition with Microsoft. Apples experience in this fight could prove invaluable.

Apple's offerings also tie into TiVo's Tahiti plans. TiVo knows that in order to compete with the cable companies, it needs to offer something they can't. Access to content through Apple would be a great start to that.

We may never hear anything else about this rumor but there's certainly plenty of reasons why an Apple/TiVo merger could work.

February 24, 2005 in Op-Ed | Permalink | Comments (30) | TrackBack

Implications of Fast Forward Ads

Shelly Palmer, Chairman of the New York Academy of Television Arts and Sciences Advanced Media committe, has several thought experiments (via unmediated) up on his blog:

You're watching your favorite show on your PVR equipped television set.  You press the pause button and a series of commercials start playing ... who should get the money?

This discussion stems from TiVo displaying ads during fast forward, which as I understand it will only display ads from the company whose ad is being fast forwarded through.

The continuation of this line of thought is the possibility of a company putting their ads over their competitor's fast forwarded ads, which is troubling due to evidence showing PVR users who fast forward through ads have higher ad recall rates.  From Shelly Palmer again:

You are probably thinking that all of these scenarios are impossible and, even if they aren't, they're illegal.  Wrong on both counts.  This is totally possible, it will start happening everywhere very, very soon and the copyright laws are a bit murky since this technology was not contemplated when they were penned.

What this means is that if it starts happening, we could see more anti-PVR legislation coming down the pipeline.

December 5, 2004 in Op-Ed | Permalink | Comments (4) | TrackBack

Behind the website: when you're at the helm of a shitstorm

The media blog has a good post looking at how the TiVo ad meme grew from this site and kind of got out of hand. I feel bad about it -- on the one hand TiVo is a company and technology that changed my life and that I love, but I thought the original point of bigger ads while you avoid ads is a bad feature for customers. When I meant this was big news, I mean in terms of the TiVo UI, not in terms of how evil TiVo was being. Now that things kind of got nuts, I wanted to explain how it happened.

The backstory
I was really surprised that my little teaser post started such a controversy. On Monday, a LA Times reporter called me, told me basically that TiVo was going to have huge banner ads whenever you hit fast forward, and asked what I thought of it. I was taken aback, since it didn't sound at all like the TiVo I loved, but that was all the info I had to go on.

I knew it would be big news and I still couldn't believe it, but I didn't want to scoop the reporter. I hadn't posted anything substantial at PVRblog in a while, so I thought I'd put a small teaser meant to be like "hey, big news coming tomorrow that will be kind of bad and people might flip out." It's tough to think about this stuff in hindsight, knowing what we now know, but I didn't think it'd be such a self-fulfilling prophecy. But on the other hand, I could tell it would be a big thing, much bigger than the gold star showcase ads that everyone freaked out about a couple years ago (which I thought people totally went overboard on -- I actually watch about 75% of them).

The "goldstar" ads on TiVo Central -- once thought to be the death of TiVo

A few hours later, the article came out and had a few more details, but still was short on particulars. What I didn't know was that the TiVo Community boards were all abuzz and well on the road to freakout before the rest of the web.

The Backlash
So when the article came out, I made the post. I didn't want to totally flip out about it, but I did want to make a point out of the fact it is pushing ads at the exact point where you're trying to skip them, and how that doesn't quite jibe with how TiVo has operated in the past (it never gets in the way of letting you get around ads). The image I made in five minutes probably didn't help matters, and my "no longer tivo your way, it's tivo their way" was me trying to write a bit too much drama. From there, it got taken up by a zillion other blogs including slashdot. I've been blogging on other sites for over five years now, and know how reactionary we bloggers can be. I should have considered that before I got the ball rolling.

Days later, we know quite a bit more than the original reporter's rumors. tivopony has cleared up a few misconceptions, and it'll likely be built upon a feature already present in TiVo, what they call IPreview, a way they let you know you can record a program while watching a commercial, like this:

Hit thumbs up to get more info about a commercial, as seen today in TiVo

The Conclusion
Basically, it's going to be like the current feature, but instead of that thumbs up, you'll see something maybe 1/8th to 1/4 of the screen. Still kinda sucky, but I'm coming around to it being a necessary evil. I still wish TiVo wouldn't do this, but I know they have to make a buck to survive, so in the biggest picture sense, in a way this for users, so that TiVo will stick around. I'm not sure how many advertisers will adopt this, or how helpful it will be, but I'm curious what the final version looks like.

As much as I had a part in this whole mess, when I started noticing all the people saying they weren't going to buy a tivo, would think about selling their TiVos, and even trying to start a class action lawsuit against TiVo (for what exactly, I don't know), I knew things steamrolled out of control, and I'm kind of sad to know I was part of getting this backlash started. If I could do it all over again with a more level head to calm the troops, I certainly would, but I had so little info to go on and now that more has come to light it's not as bad as I once thought.

I'd hate to see blogs get known for reactionary authors (if it's not too late already), and I wish I had more interactions with TiVo HQ. I should have immediately contacted their PR folks after talking with the Times to get more backstory, because it was just too awful to believe. I hope TiVo and other companies embrace bloggers like me in the future, and don't keep us at arms length, or feel compelled to apease us to prevent future flameouts. We love the company and could have guessed the backlash was going to be big days ahead of its release. If you read this far, hopefully you understand why things got to where they are and it's my hope this whole thing blows over.

The bright side
TiVo ToGo is rumored to be coming out in December (I'd say it's almost for sure), and everything I'm hearing from testers is that it's fantastic and quite easy to use. I can't wait for it and hope it comes to my DirecTiVo, though I'm not holding my breath.

(Screenshots courtesy of the excellent PVR Comparisons site.)

November 18, 2004 in Op-Ed | Permalink | Comments (22) | TrackBack

Stop the Broadcast Flag at EFF

Last month I had an idea to create a shop where you could buy Broadcast Flag-free PC products, which are set to be gone by July 1, 2005. I was even going to stockpile equipment so I could continue to sell it after the fact. I never got around to building the site before July 1st of this year (I wanted to start it exactly one year before the deadline), but  the fine folks at the EFF kicked off their one year clock and site on the Broadcast Flag. I helped them craft the message for the page and they'll be bulking it up soon with links to products you can buy, info on why it's a big deal, and steps you can take to enjoy more PVR functionality before July 1, 2005. One of the features of my Broadcast Flagless site idea was to do a countdown clock, which the EFF has, and I'll be adding to this site as well soon.

This gist of it is this: After July 1, 2005, every PC HDTV card, computer PVR software, and home theater based HDTV recorder (like the HD DirecTiVo unit) will be aware of the Broadcast Flag and prevent you from moving recordings off your boxes. They'll be especially harsh on computer based stuff, since pretty much every computer is connected to the internet these days and the Flag is supposed to suppress the ability to trade shows online.

So what will the pirates do? They'll likely do what anyone would do if hit with prohibition at a certain date: they'll simply use equipment created before the date and do what they do, recording programs and releasing them online.

What will typical home users do? They'll likely buy products not knowing that the Broadcast Flag limits what they can do, record programs, then eventually find out they can't use video streaming or sharing features that products like SnapStream and Windows Media Center Edition will have for HDTV signals.

Will it stop the trading of TV shows online? Unlikely. Will it annoy honest folks that pay for top quality entertainment and products? Most likely.

The worst part of all this is that thanks to the DMCA, it'll be illegal to hack your own Broadcast Flag drivers into a system, meaning that Linux-based PVR software like MythTV may not be able to record protected HDTV content after next year. Any software that removes or disables Broadcast Flag limitations will definitely be illegal, but get this, any hardware built before July 1, 2005 that isn't Broadcast Flag aware can be legally sold after the date. So if you stock up on a case of new HDTV cards for your PC, you'll be able to legally enjoy your black market profits next year.

Personally, my biggest worry is that like every other protection the movie industry has created for themselves, the rules will be abused to eventually benefit companies while customers suffer. Look at region encoding thing that all DVDs have. DVDs are set to play only in certain parts of the world and most DVD players can only play discs from their own area. I remember when the idea was first proposed and the movie industry promised that it wasn't going to be used to price fix or prevent material from being available in certain regions, but today we find that most customers in regions with more expensive DVDs use region-free DVD players and just import the cheap DVDs. Also as any fan of British TV in America knows, you can buy a lot of DVDs at Amazon.co.uk you can't purchase at Amazon.com, sometimes including even an Amercian TV series (the Family Guy DVDs were availabe in the UK for almost a year before they were released here). The Digital Millenium Copyright Act was supposed to just prevent cracking of copyright code for software and hardware used by computers and entertainment devices, but today we have printer companies and cell phone companies suing small companies that produce cheaper ink cartridges and replacement batteries, and we have authors that can't write books on hacking movie players into video game systems and even PVRs (there's a reason why there are no books on hacking Series 2 TiVos).

Once the Broadcast Flag is out there in hardware and software, and all HDTV signals are coming down with it enabled, what's going to happen a couple years from now when Hollywood gets nervous about their bottom line? Will the Broadcast Flag only prevent moving a captured show file from one PC to another or will you suddenly be limited on how many times you can play something back or burn it to a DVD? And why are PBS signals being encrypted with the Broadcast Flag after July 1, 2005? Isn't it the public broadcasting system, i.e., the one we give tons of federal money to and is free to all markets? Will a teacher be able to record shows from HDTV PBS signal and bring those into a classrom? I certainly hope so.

As an act of protest, and a way to test the HDTV waters, I'm going to buy an HDTV card soon for my PC at home. I'll get to dip my toe into the complex world of HDTV content, and I'll have something that will likely be valuable after a year goes by.

July 8, 2004 in Op-Ed | Permalink | Comments (12)

The Glory of HDTV

As I sit here waiting for my HDTV DirecTiVo review unit, I looked longingly at a couple regular folks who recently got HDTV and are raving about the quality: HDTV baby and The Glory of HDTV.

But…perhaps I’m just more sensitive to picture quality because I spend so much time in front of a monitor. HDTV feels like I’m watching DVDs all the time. If HDTV were more expensive, I would pick and choose who to recommend it to. But $5 is a bargain for the extra-level of quality you receive, and easily affordable.

Man, I can't wait.

April 13, 2004 in Op-Ed | Permalink | Comments (8) | TrackBack

Who doesn't like TiVo?

Jason Kottke, is soliciting stories from readers that don't like TiVo. This could be the most valuable market research for TiVo and other PVR manufacturers ever, if they're paying attention. There are a lot of great user complaints so far.

March 19, 2004 in Op-Ed | Permalink | Comments (29) | TrackBack

Doubts about HD TiVo

GearBits has a good breakdown of why there are doubts about the standalone HD TiVo seeing the light of day.

It echos a lot of things said here by many commenters -- that the nature of cable HD is too difficult to create decoders and recorders for, and the number of people using over-the-air HD is very small, marketingwise. This is all based on guessing how the market is going but given that TiVo has pushed back plans for the non-DirecTV unit to some future date, if you've got HD content coming in from cable or the air, it might be worth checking out the competition for DVRs. [via gizmodo]

January 26, 2004 in Op-Ed | Permalink | Comments (8) | TrackBack

Emily Bell, Guardian Unlimited

Emily Bell, editor-in-chief of Guardian Unlimited, weighs in with an opinion piece about the impact of PVRs with respect to TV program scheduling. While not too much new ground is covered here, it is important to note how executives of major media organizations understand that their world is changing.

The ability to pick and store programmes at random leaves schedulers with an insurmountable problem, and presents the challenge of marketing in a noisy and fragmented environment. The concept of building an audience could, in a few years, be living on borrowed time. Our loyalties no longer belong to the schedule but to individual programmes in a way mainstream broadcasters thought would never happen.

MediaGuardian.co.uk | Media | Emily Bell: We're all in charge now

October 20, 2003 in Op-Ed | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack

Fool.com: Et Tu TiVo?

A new TiVo article at Fool.com [via library planet] serves as a nice optimistic counter-point to my warnings below. Fool.com columnist Rick Munarriz is convinced once TiVo surpasses the million subscriber mark, substantial growth and profitability will be soon to follow for TiVo.

I hope he's right, and although TiVo posted losses today, their rise in subscribers produced a stock jump.

August 22, 2003 in News, Op-Ed | Permalink | Comments (2) | TrackBack

TiVo's Apple problem

As the digital video recorder space begins filling up with companies aiming to provide more features and lower prices, I can't help but see obvious paralells with the computer industry.

Apple created the first personal computer real people could use, and a few years later they followed it up with the first computer with an operating system made for humans. But over the years other companies offered products that were "good enough" and "not the best, but cheap!" and the IBM PC clones totally dominated the space. Apple has always stuck to being a hardware and software company, so they could never really meet the prices that a competitive PC hardware market created. While they did allow clones to spring up for a short time, they quickly put the kibash on the companies that undercut their own sales.

Apple still does their own hardware (though many components are cheap off-the-shelf PC parts) and their own software, but they are definitely the Betamax of the computer world. While they arguably offer a better interface and are easier to use, they hover around 5-10% 3% (thanks gen) of the marketshare while most consumers prefer the VHS of the computer world: the $400 plain boxes running windows. Even the places you buy computers reflect this. Apple has a line of bright, beautiful stores that you can spend thousands of dollars in, while you can walk into any Wal-Mart, muscle past the screaming kids and throw a nameless PC into your cart that'll set you back a few hundred bucks.

Like Apple, TiVo pioneered the market. TiVo has been around since 1998, and their first systems stored just a few hours and were quite expensive, but their software was revolutionary. Being somewhat of an interface designer myself, I was in immediate awe of the simplicity and functionality available in my first TiVo system. While the prices have fallen somewhat, the market sector is still a little stagnant, with TiVo just barely in the red, and a whole host of new competitors arising. Cable companies, startups, and even open-source projects have taken dead aim on TiVo's market and will make the space quite competitive very soon.

The consensus of everyone I talk to that uses these alternate DVR devices is the same: they rave about the features and/or the price, but lamment the lack of a simple to use and stable operating system that TiVo offers. But as prices fall and companies like Time Warner start offering DVRs for only a couple extra bucks a month, you have to wonder what combination of low price and "good enough" features it will take to gain lots of new customers (customers that TiVo will lose to the cheaper offerings).

As the competitors circle the market like vultures, I wonder if TiVo will resign itself as the Apple Computer of DVRs, where its snooty users will put stickers on their cars, make up 5 or 10% of the DVR space, and tell you all about how refined their TiVo operating system is. Or, will TiVo become the Microsoft of DVRs, acting more as a software and service company that licenses their OS to anyone that wants to throw together some basic parts?

Word on the street has always been that TiVo loses money on every unit they sell for $249-349 — that the hardware costs them more than the price, and their real business model is the reoccuring monthly service fee. It seems to me that due to ever-falling prices for basic commodity computer hardware, the prices of TiVo boxes must fall, or TiVo should send in the clones. Anyone can throw a hard drive, motherboard, and cheap processor into some plastic, but it takes real work to produce an operating system that works wonderfully and features an interface both geeks and grandmas can like.

Seeing the first of new TiVo-licensed products and reduced cost through TiVo Basic is a good sign, and they've even hinting at built-in DVD writers — something that would probably take TiVo another year to release in-house on their own boxes. I'm hopeful TiVo learns the lessons of the PC world and considers going the software, service, and licensing route. I'd hate to see them flounder in a tiny corner of the market they helped create.

August 22, 2003 in Op-Ed, TiVo | Permalink | Comments (12) | TrackBack

Stating the Obvious: iPod and TiVo

This new piece at Stating the Obvious talks about ideas for the next generation of iPods that may store content from music labels or the Apple store, and compares the device to TiVo's success with promotional advertising.

While I was skeptical at first of TiVo's promotional messages, I have to admit I kind of like the promotions that get downloaded to my TiVo. So far they've been fairly high quality, with movie trailers I wanted to see, beautifully produced porsche and lexus ads that run a couple minutes in length, and my personal favorite, the BMW short film ads that feature prominent actors and directors. I was tired of watching the BMW short films online, in tiny, grainy quicktime windows and welcomed the full resolution ads on my TV.

Michael Sippey should be happy to note that TiVo employs many of the ideas he lays out in the Home Media Option. I'm working on a full review of HMO for this site, but one of the cool things is that it comes essentially pre-loaded with photos and music from TiVo. It might be a broadband-only feature, since I'm guessing from looking at the content, it may use about 40-50Mb of storage. The "Music From TiVo" available in my Music and Photos section features a selection of music from Universal. I can't copy or buy the music, just stream for my enjoyment, but I was happy to see my favorite Jurrasic 5 tune and a broad range of other artists from 50 cent to Queens of the Stone Age.

I actually wouldn't mind seeing this feature expanded to more than one label, perhaps to a handful of record labels. I'm always looking for new music and don't listen to much radio anymore, so most mainstream stuff is new to me. TiVo has likely turned the space into a revenue source for them, and since it offers some utility to users like me, it's win-win for TiVo and customers alike.

July 29, 2003 in Op-Ed, TiVo | Permalink | Comments (1) | TrackBack