early adopters do not a market make

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early adopters do not a market make

Om Malik has a bunch of links to new survey data that supports information we have known for quite some time.

A lot of people laughed at Steve Jobs when he introduced a hard-drive based music player nearly three years after the competitors introduced his. But his timing was right. It is the same issue at work here - TiVo and its ilk came out too soon. The Ipsos study finds that people would rather get a DVR from their cable or satellite (or soon telephone) company than buy a standalone product.

Om Malik on Broadband » We Like TiVo, Just Don’t Want To Buy It

by Gen Kanai January 27, 2005 in News

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Tivo is failing because of a few things...
1. Inital price.
2. Complexity to integrate
3. Lack of plug and play compatability with cable.

To the average consumer, 300 + 300 or a monthly fee is alot to put down on a device. Without fully knowing about the product, or how it will work. Their current pricing model is more in line with consumer's wants. 100-500 + 300 or monthly. To the average consumer, tivo's great functionality, an ui is also over kill. People want a cheap, simple vcr. Cable companys dvr's do this.
The fact you have to put this device serially with your cable box, and setup the ir blasters is a pain. With a cable card tivo, this would be so much easier, not to mention efficient.
If these devices were a cable box replacement, and HD, and had _all_ the tivo features (tivo to go, and hmo), I'd buy one right now. Currently I'm using a series 1, and an at&tivo, waiting for a proper hd variety. But the time is comming when I'm just going to build my own HD media center pc and be done with it, that way I won't have to be bothered by crappy DRM and poor integration, only poor integration ;).

Posted by: AO at Jan 27, 2005 6:54:37 AM

I have to echo AO's comment about a media center PC being the way to go. I think Tivo is great, but my BeyondTV PC does the same thing (and it even controls my cable box with a serial cable!) for less than the price of a mid-range Tivo with lifetime subscription. I can also upgrade easily. Need more recording time? Throw in another hard drive. Want HD recording? Pop in an HD capture card. (Hopefully BeyondTV will go HD soon. If not, there are other options.) Then add the ability to use some 3rd party apps to cut commercials and compress to AVI. I don't see how Tivo can keep up.

Media PCs still aren't perfect. They are more complicated to hook up than a Tivo and require some computer skill to set up, but once it's done it works great.

Tivo's strength is it's software. If they ditched the monthly fee, made a PC/Mac software package and let cable/sat companies use it I could see them growing. They would still make us deal with DRM, but I think just about every PVR product is going to have to deal with that eventually.

Posted by: MrBlank at Jan 27, 2005 8:13:21 AM

How exactly MediaPC is an improvement over Tivo for the average user? It still sits between cable box and TV, and is likely to be more expensive and complex to use.

Most people want an appliance that just works. PCs are not in that category (yet). I would bet in the end cable box/satellite receiver will be the place for Tivo-like functionality to reside for most people - early adopters and gadget enthusiasts excluded, all 5% of us.

Posted by: PG at Jan 27, 2005 11:36:32 AM

The more I talk to people, the more people seem to all say what keeps them from a TiVo (now only about $50 vs. $300 they used to start at) is the monthly fee.

I know lots of businesses remain successful with monthly fees versus having a huge upfront cost, but especially when it comes to TV, people are aware that everything is measured in cost per month, and they're usually at their limit. TiVo tried to insert itself as a new product and a new monthly cost to the TV equation. When they were 8 bucks a month, it was as big of a problem, but when they went to $12.95 it was suddenly more expensive than adding a movie channel to the average lineup and folks are balking.

ReplayTV tried to make their money on the boxes, selling a $500 box that never needed anything more. I don't think TiVo would be as successful as it is today if they went that route, but I do wish they got their money in other ways besides monthly fees.

Posted by: Matt Haughey at Jan 27, 2005 12:41:30 PM

I know the trend is to get pvr from cable but I will be going in the opposite direction. I look to a pvr-pc solution. I prefer not to pay a flat monthly fee for pvr services when I may or may not use the service.

Posted by: Earle at Jan 27, 2005 1:18:13 PM

I have all three a TIVO a Motorola Comcast 2 tuner hd dvr and a media center 2005

As far as usablity and software TIVO is by far the best and also the most reliable software platform I have never had a crash or freeze never, and setup is very simple and user friendly

Comcast has the technology advantage with HD and a duel tuner, sfotware less satble or user friendly

Media center is certainly the most flexible, but probably the most problamatric for the general consumer

Overall Id would give TIVO a slight edge

if they can bridge the hd gap it will help

marketing is another whole issue

Posted by: MB at Jan 27, 2005 3:57:48 PM

early adopters do not a market make

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