Interesting statistics of late

I recently came across two interesting bits of statistics that put the PVR world in focus.

A recent survey by Knowledge Networks uncovered the following data.

• 4% of TV homes report owning a DVR (such as TiVo) -- a figure that has doubled in the past 6 months;
• 6% have an HDTV set, up 50% versus six months ago;
• 18% a VCR/DVD dual deck; and
• 5% a PC with a TV tuner.

The numbers sound a bit optimistic (1 in 25 TV viewers has a PVR), and there's no explanation of their sample size or audience on the press release, but the numbers are interesting. I didn't know HDTV had even cracked the 1% mark yet, but I would guess that many of the 6% that own HDTVs just recently bought new televisions that happened to be HDTV, not that they necessarily bought the HDTV deliberately. I'd love to see the percentage of HDTVs that actually are getting over the air, cable, or satellite HD signals. I suspect it's much less than 100%.

I would have never expected to hear that more people can get TV on their computer than all those that own a TiVo like device. That must be great news for someone like Snapstream, though I suspect like HDTV, just because someone can get TV on their computer doesn't necessarily mean they watch TV on their computer or would want to enjoy recorded programs via their computer as opposed to their TV.

The other interesting statistic that has come to light is the trend of average number of channels folks are getting in their homes, over time:

Average Number Of TV Channels Receivable
1985 18.8
1990 33.2
1995 41.1
2000 74.6
2001 89.2
2002 102.1
2003 100.4

The Nielsen Ratings folks attribute the trend levelling out and starting a slight decline to DVR use, but like Ernest said over here, the market penetration is just too small (4% if you go with the above data) and that people can only watch so many things before it's too many and for average TV folks, 100 might be that limit.

Personally, I think DVR use allows you to find content on more channels and would send the trend up if more people had a TiVo. Maybe I'm not the average TV viewer, but I'd rather watch the best shows from more networks than more shows from fewer channels. More channels are more work without a DVR, with one, it doesn't really matter.

When I first got DirecTV a couple years ago, I was blown away by the 200+ channels of stuff I might someday watch (ignoring the rest of the 1-999 dial). There are just too many channels, too many shows, and too many schedules to keep track of by hand. My TiVo, on the other hand, can read from those hundreds of channels and just pull down what I want to see. I've used DirecTV without TiVo since, and it sucks. It's just too many channels and you feel lost after a while.

In a way, a TiVo surfing hundreds of channels and just showing me the most recent dozen shows I want is a lot like an RSS reader and weblogs like this one. I bet dollars to doughnuts that folks with RSS readers read more sites, more words, and more information than those that just surf the web aimlessly with a browser. Someone should phone up the Nielsen folks and show them RSS readers.

Comments

[Boomerang]

You're missing an important piece of information about people who use PCs with tuners - most of us hook a TV to the PC, I built a dedicated Home Theater PC (totally silent and looks like a high end audio component) and put two tuner cards in it. I can record two shows while I watch pre-recorded shows. Or waych/pause live TV while I record something else. I pay no subscription fees and can do more than I could with a Tivo. I use BeyondTV 3.5 beta from Snapstream and am very happy. There are no keyboards/mice in the living room, we do everything via a remote control.

So don't count people using PCs with tuner cards as "geeks" - we just chhose to build our own home theater components over the limited capabilities of Tivo etc.

[justin]

that's more technical than i usually care to get. i take the easy way out; buy a tivo box and plug it in. how big is your hard drive then?

[andrew]

Although DVR penetration of 4% is still not considered a meaningful figure within the TV universe (we'll get there at about 25%) the growth rate of 100% from last year may be indicative of significant momentum building up in this space. Assuming this rate of growth continues or even accelerates we'll reach the 25% penetration mark in a little under two and a half years (even though some analysts forecast rates as high as 50% by 2007).

Also noteworthy (as Boomerang notes) is the number of PC's that currently have a tuner card - at 5% this is certainly not an insignificant number. However, while we have no doubt that PVR owners use it regularly it is not immediately obvious how many PC owners actually watch TV on their monitors. One thing is for certain though, you can expect every consumer PC to ship with a tuner card in the future. This is all part of the "TV Anywhere" future.

I discuss these and other issues surrounding Digital Entertainment Convergence on my blog at http://alteraxion.typepad.com.

I will shortly also post some interesting figures on PC-based PVR's.

[Blogs]

The reason many computers have TV inputs is because they are common on moderate to high-end gaming video cards. I doubt most of those gamers watch TV on their computers.

[JAT]

I'd expect a big part of that increased market penetration has to do with direct sales of DVR hardware from cable/satellite providers to the consumer. I've seen a number of advertisments from both cable and sattelite companies including a low end DVR for free or at a reduced price with installation of one of their high end services. Non-technophiles are way more likely to install a new piece of technology when their television provider comes out to the house and hooks everything up for them.

I'm only guessing here, but it seems to me that people are becomming increasingly willing to drop a bunch of cash for premium channels on these networks and that the varies contenders are looking for more ways to attract customers away from their competitors. Now that reception is pretty good on both cable and sattelite, I think DVR capability is becoming another tool in this competition.

[BoomerangEnvy]

Boomerang,

What type of PC are you using, What tuner card?

Thanks

You can email me at:

neo_yhoo@yahoo.com
or
ansoft@aol.com

[John Stuart]

So...I am more interested in what televised college sports events and specialized business information can be subscribed to. What portal or ecommerce vendor specializes in the distribution of subscription based services for specialized and niche entertainment and information? Is there an Amazon type "have everything" seller?

[Josh]

What effect will DVR's and products like TIVO on televised live sport events?

[Alex Shani]

Do you have statistics about TV versus PC Worldwide. Also how many (%) of TV use /can use Interactive TV. Please indicate the source.
Appreciate very much your help.
Alex

[brooke]

How much was the first Television